Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Shock poll: Obama could lose Illinois, Romney leads in Chicago suburbs

When I saw this I couldn't believe it! Of course I try not to pay too much attention to polls. My theory is still that this will be a close election this year and that Obama could still win Illinois but if this poll is any indication Obama can still win this state, just that it will be a close election here anyway.
A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.

Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.

Those numbers do not bode well for the president.

“He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate,” explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.

“It’s not like his policies are very popular downstate,” McKeon said. “He’s viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.”

According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obama’s problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.
Another point to note:
Illinois is not considered a swing state by any means; it is seen as solidly blue, and has been for the past two election cycles. But McKeon pointed to the 2010 gubernatorial race when Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties. That is a feat Romney could repeat this year, leaving Obama vulnerable if he cannot expand his lead in Cook County.
Well Quinn is a different example from Obama. Quinn doesn't have the qualities Obama had in 2008 and still does now. Quinn one the race in 2010 barely, but Obama on the other hand time will only tell what the results will truly be.

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