Blue States Need the Dream

You may have seen my two recent posts on the Illinois gubernatorial race. One asked whether the only televised forum between Governor Pritzker and Darren Bailey would move anyone who hasn’t already voted. The other was about what a solid opposition actually looks like in a state that has grown used to one-party rule. My point in covering it is simple: Illinois needs an opposition party that can win. As PBD has said about candidates running for president, the opposition still has to sell the dream.

California is another state in the same position. Steve Hilton finished second in the top-two primary and is the Republican nominee against Xavier Becerra. He has spent months making the case that the state can be more affordable and better governed. Polls still show him trailing by a wide margin. The election is unlikely to go his way.

Now we arrive at New York. Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul is running for another term against Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. If I am reading people like Bill O’Reilly correctly, Blakeman has a realistic shot at knocking off the incumbent.

Here are some highlights via NY Post: [VIDEO]

The exchanges are mostly about utility bills, sanctuary policies, spending on migrants, and Hochul’s attempts to tie Blakeman to President Trump. Blakeman’s side of the argument is that she has been governor for five years and the results are hers. Hochul’s side is that the alternative is Trump-style leadership.

This Is on California

I hadn’t been following the California gubernatorial race much since the open primary in June. The right generally agrees the state is a mess under one-party rule, and the consensus is that Steve Hilton — former British political operative and Fox News host — will lose in November.

The usual exhibit is what happened to Spencer Pratt in the same June election. He hoped to reach the runoff for mayor of Los Angeles. There were the familiar complaints about mail-in ballots and California’s loose rules on what counts and when.

I have been to Skid Row twice in my lifetime. I still find it hard to believe a whole neighborhood in this nation is allowed to stay like that.

This video from Fox News Digital reporter Ashley J. DiMella is revealing. She walks the area with Hilton. He notes the federal help clearing streets, then makes the point that the condition itself remains on California.

🚨 ON THE GROUND: Fox News Digital joined @SteveHiltonx in LA’s Skid Row, witnessing human feces, open drug use, sprawling encampments and trash-filled sidewalks. Hilton calls it a “political scandal.” https://t.co/yPREpf7Qpq

— AJD (@AshleyJDiMella) October 12, 2026

Hilton calls it a political scandal rather than a natural disaster. Billions spent, nonprofits funded for “harm reduction,” streets still covered in encampments, drugs, and refuse.

Bailey Interrupted. Pritzker Stayed Cool

I had the chance to watch Tuesday’s WTTW-TV Illinois gubernatorial forum in its entirety. The original post with the full video is here: Will the Forum Move the Needle. At this time it has not caused me to move the needle on whether I am enthusiastic about a third term for Governor Pritzker or whether Darren Bailey should have his turn. I am guessing it has not moved the needle for anyone else either.

Credit: Chicago Sun-Times

All the Chips on the Table

CBS Sunday Morning still has the feel of appointment television, even when you’re watching it on Paramount+ at a later time. In the most recent edition, one of the segments featured political strategist Steve Bannon interviewed by senior contributor Ted Koppel. (Yes, that Ted Koppel—the longtime host of ABC’s Nightline.)

Who is Steve Bannon?
Steve Bannon is a former investment banker, media executive, and political operative who became widely known as executive chairman of Breitbart News and as a key strategist in Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign. He served briefly as White House chief strategist early in the first Trump administration before returning to media as host of the War Room podcast, where he has remained a prominent voice for the MAGA movement, populist nationalism, and Republican electoral strategy. He has also faced legal consequences, including a 2022 contempt-of-Congress conviction related to the January 6 investigation and a guilty plea in a fundraising fraud case tied to a border-wall charity.

Watch interview here: [VIDEO]

Not a Comment on the Opposition #twill

I was asked by a relative to try to predict the midterms. In 2024 it was easier to say Vice President Kam-A-la Harris would get her clock cleaned by President Donald Trump. Even then it was not fully assured. This time is harder.

Both sides have put up candidates I would not send.

In Texas the Senate race is James Talarico aka "Talafreako" against Ken Paxton. Texas is not a purple state that wandered. It is a red state, and Paxton is still not clear of Talarico. September polls had the Democrat ahead or tied. A New York Times/Siena survey in June had them even at 47. That is the tell. Paxton carries the baggage. Talarico is a strange fit for the state he is asking to send him.

He is a Presbyterian seminarian who told the Texas House, in 2021, that God is non-binary, and that trans children are made in God's image. He has said other traditions circle the same truth. I am not grading his theology. I am saying a candidate who talks that way is asking Texas to ignore what it has been. Democrats may still vote for him. A lot of them cannot bring themselves to vote for a Republican, especially one aligned with Donald Trump.

The same pattern shows up with Democratic Socialists of America candidates who have won House seats. I would not call them strong candidates. They have a leg up anyway. Democrats who are not socialists will often take the socialist over the Republican.

Allow me to bring this conversation home to Illinois. 

My read on the Illinois races I have looked at in September is that Democrats keep the governor's mansion and the Senate seat Dick Durbin is leaving. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton against former state party chair Don Tracy. Gov. J.B. Pritzker, running for a third term, against Darren Bailey again.

If there was a seat people could call winnable, it was Durbin's. I am saying winnable. I am not saying Republicans win it. A Public Policy Polling survey taken September 30 and October 1 had Stratton at 49 and Tracy at 36. The same poll had Pritzker at 54 and Bailey at 34, with independent Collin Corbett at 6. The Senate gap is the smaller one. Smaller is not small.

Then came Monday. Via CapitolFax.

Illinois Still Looks Settled

I wanted to get into these videos on the Illinois governor’s race. JB Pritzker is seeking a third term. His Republican opponent is the same man from 2022, Darren Bailey, running this time with Cook County Republican Aaron Del Mar. Given that Illinois is a solid blue state, the Republicans have a very steep climb in 2026.

The first clip is Del Mar. FOX 32 got a recording of comments he made about George Floyd. He sat down with political reporter Brandon Pope to answer them.

Watch it here [VIDEO]

The Second Night

Night two starts at 3 p.m. Central at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. Same hall as Wednesday. Still no roll call. Vance has the keynote. Trump closes.

Pretend I'm on the Ballot

Trump spoke last. Lee Greenwood, then roughly two hours, then night one was over.

Check out what he said here: [VIDEO]

The line that organized the speech was turnout. “When I’m on the ticket, Republicans always do very well,” Trump said. Midterms without him on the line are the problem he named. “So I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot.” About 35 races. Twice or three times if he has to.

The first name on that list was Ken Paxton.

“I’ll be coming back to Texas, because we have to elect Ken Paxton.” Then the bit he has been doing for weeks: the suit, the voice, “not the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen,” then “the greatest attorney general in America.” He looked for Paxton in the hall and said Ken would never speak to him again.

Paxton had already gone. Thanked Trump. “Protecting the Texas Promise.” 107 suits against Biden. Talarico as the most radical and most well-funded Democrat in Texas, out to destroy the American dream, California’s third senator, “obsessed with transitions.”

For Talarico, Trump used the trail nickname: Talafreako. Talarico already put that word on merch. Wednesday he was at a grocery drive across town.

The race is why Dallas was not scenery. Paxton beat Cornyn in the May runoff with Trump’s endorsement. Talarico won the Democratic primary outright. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Cook and Sabato: Toss Up since late August. Inside Elections still Lean Republican into September.

What Happened in Wisconsin?

 Bill O’Reilly breaks down the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor.

Watch it here: [VIDEO]

The Left’s Incomplete Night

This Politico piece captured the night while the Michigan U.S. Senate race was still too close to call and progressives were realizing they hadn’t delivered the blowout many expected.

Yesterday’s Michigan primaries

Progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly beat moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic Senate primary. The race was far closer than late polls predicted.

In Michigan’s 7th District, Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence won the Democratic House primary after two moderates split the vote.

In the 13th District, democratic socialist Donavan McKinney narrowly unseated incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar.

Cori Bush’s comeback bid

Former “Squad” member and democratic socialist Cori Bush tried to reclaim the St. Louis-area House seat she lost in 2024. She faced the same opponent who beat her then, incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell.

Bush ran again as a sharp critic of U.S. support for Israel and as a progressive standard-bearer. The race drew heavy outside spending, much of it from pro-Israel groups backing Bell. She lost decisively, roughly 59% to 37%.

It was one of the clearer setbacks for the progressive left on a night that otherwise produced mixed results for that faction.

h/t Newsalert

Ben Shapiro Breaks Down Voting Rights Under the Constitution

Ben Shapiro released a sharp video today that cuts straight to a point I raised two months ago: What The Constitution REALLY Says About Voting Rights.

The core argument is simple and historically solid. The original Constitution does not create a broad federal right to vote. Article I, Section 2 ties House voter qualifications to whatever the states set for their own most numerous legislative body. Article I, Section 4 leaves the “Times, Places and Manner” of elections primarily to the states. Article II leaves the method of appointing presidential electors to state legislatures. The Framers built a republic with deliberate filters against pure majoritarianism. Federalist 10’s warning about faction was not decorative.

The later amendments changed the landscape only in specific, negative ways:

• 15th Amendment: no denial on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude
• 19th: no denial on account of sex
• 24th: no poll tax in federal elections
• 26th: no denial to citizens 18 and older

These are anti-discrimination rules. They do not transfer ordinary qualification authority (photo ID, registration rules, citizenship verification, ballot chain-of-custody standards) from the states to Washington. Neutral, evenly applied requirements are not discrimination against a protected class.

Ben Shapiro on the Democratic Civil War Getting Ugly

 Ben Shapiro’s latest episode zeroes in on the mess inside the Democratic Party right now. The title is direct: “The Democratic Civil War Is Getting Ugly.” It lands at a moment when the party’s internal fractures are no longer subtle.

Watch it here: [VIDEO]

The core of the piece is straightforward. The Democratic National Committee is broke—roughly $2 million in debt while the RNC sits on well over $100 million. Party leaders have resorted to asking vendors not to send bills until after the midterms. Ken Martin, the DNC chair, reportedly threw his phone at a junior aide’s desk in frustration. Donors with money are routing it around the party apparatus to candidates and outside groups. The institutional center is hollowed out.

Into that vacuum steps the Democratic Socialists of America and their orbit. Shapiro treats this as more than ordinary factional fighting. The DSA is not simply pushing the party left; it is advancing a different theory of what the country should become. Moderates like Pete Buttigieg urge the party to talk about what it is for rather than attack the radicals. Rahm Emanuel warns that the Bernie-wing nominees saddle Democrats in swing districts with positions that make general elections harder. Bernie Sanders fires back that the establishment is defending a status quo voters have already rejected.

The clearest proxy fight right now is the Michigan Senate primary. Gretchen Whitmer has endorsed Congresswoman Haley Stevens against Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens is already well to the left by national standards, yet she is treated as insufficiently pure—especially on Israel. El-Sayed carries the progressive energy, the DSA-adjacent endorsements, and a record that includes positions Shapiro flags as far outside the mainstream. Polls and prediction markets are telling different stories. The outcome will signal how far the party is willing to go in safe or lean-Democratic territory.

This is the same dynamic the blog has been tracking for weeks: the DSA’s willingness to treat American institutions as obstacles rather than inheritance, the reluctance of institutional Democrats to draw hard lines, and the practical consequences when the loudest energy in a party sits well outside the median voter. Parties that cannot resolve their internal arguments about first principles tend to lose the ability to govern or even to campaign effectively.

Shapiro’s framing is that the civil war is real and that the radicals are currently better organized and more motivated. Whether the institutional side can still impose discipline in places that matter for the 2026 map remains an open question. The Michigan primary is one early test. There will be others.

Competing Ideas, Forgotten History

 At the time I was in eighth grade the Soviet Union had already fallen. The main communist nation, often called the Evil Empire, had collapsed. At the time it seemed reasonable to assume its successor state, Russia, would eventually become a democratic country much like the United States. We know that transition was never simple. Russia today is a different animal from the Soviet Union—more authoritarian state capitalism than classical Marxism-Leninism—but the original system’s failure remains instructive.

Right now, if you follow commentators on the right—Ben Shapiro, Glenn Beck, and others—they are talking about the energy on the radical left, mainly those who call themselves Democratic Socialists.

Trump: Ten Years After the Nomination

Ten years ago on July 21, 2016, Donald Trump stood on the stage in Cleveland and officially accepted the Republican nomination for President of the United States.

TEN YEARS AGO TODAY: Donald J. Trump officially accepts the Republican nomination for President of the United States.

The rest is history. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/naiiOQSAMJ

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 22, 2026

The rest, as the White House Rapid Response account put it this week, is history.

Trump’s Primetime Address on Elections – July 16, 2026

 Trump’s Primetime Address on Elections – July 16, 2026

President Donald Trump delivered a roughly 25-minute primetime address to the nation from the White House East Room yesterday evening. The speech centered on election integrity, repeating long-standing concerns about voting systems while announcing the declassification and release of intelligence documents.

Supreme Court Lifts Party Spending Caps: What It Means for 2026

Yesterday, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6-3 ruling that removes long-standing limits on how much national political parties can spend in coordination with their candidates. The decision in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission (No. 24-621) strikes down provisions of the Federal Election Campaign Act that had capped “coordinated party expenditures.”

How this classic cartoon fits the story (credit: J. Keppler, Puck Magazine — historical/public domain political illustration): The image above is a Gilded Age political cartoon showing wealthy monopolies and big business interests literally overwhelming the U.S. Senate. It perfectly captures the long-running fear that unlimited money from powerful donors can distort democracy and turn elected officials into conduits for special interests. The current U.S. Supreme Court ruling loosens coordinated spending rules between parties and candidates—critics argue this could amplify similar dynamics in 2026 by making it easier for large donors to route influence through party committees, while supporters see it as restoring parties' free speech rights against overly restrictive rules.

Elections Are (Almost) Dead: Fact-Checking Tim Pool on the SCOTUS Mail Ballot Ruling

Tim Pool came in hot on the Supreme Court’s latest move, calling it a serious blow to election integrity on his Timcast IRL podcast last night.

I watched it, leaned in on his points, and did the homework (with the assistance of A.I.). Here’s the ruling, Tim’s main claims, and a clear-eyed fact check.

Watch the Timcast IRL short here: [VIDEO]

Watson Ruling: Why Election Day Must End on Election Day

 The Supreme Court issued its decision in Watson v. Republican National Committee (No. 24-1260) on June 29, 2026. In a 5-4 ruling authored by Justice Amy Coney Barrett (joined by Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson), the Court reversed the Fifth Circuit and held that federal election-day statutes do not preempt state laws allowing mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be received and counted a few days later.

Mississippi’s law (ballots received up to five business days after Election Day) survives. Similar grace periods in roughly a dozen other states, including California’s seven-day window, are now clearly on solid legal ground.

U.S. Supreme Court Source: Georgia Public Broadcasting / public domain news photo

Big Night for Democratic Socialists in New York

 Last night’s Democratic primaries in New York City delivered clear momentum for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Three high-profile congressional races saw Mamdani- and DSA-aligned candidates prevail, building directly on Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s 2025 upset victory and signaling a more organized push from the party’s left flank into federal office.

Democratic Socialists of America Flag via Amazon

These weren’t fringe races. They took place in safely Democratic districts where the primary winner is all but guaranteed a seat in Congress come November. The results add fresh energy (and some tension) to the national conversation about where the Democratic Party is headed heading into the 2026 midterms.

The Key Wins

NY-7 (Brooklyn-Queens area): State Assemblymember Claire Valdez, a DSA member and union organizer endorsed by Mayor Mamdani, defeated Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and other challengers. She captured roughly 56-58% of the vote in a race framed as a test of DSA organizational strength versus more institutional progressive politics.

NY-10: Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, backed by Mamdani, ousted two-term Rep. Dan Goldman in a strong progressive showing (around 66% to 34%).

NY-13 (Upper Manhattan and the Bronx): Community organizer and DSA member Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated five-term incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat. Early results showed her edging out the veteran congressman in a contest that highlighted divides over issues like housing, policing, and foreign policy.

These victories are part of a broader DSA/Mamdani slate performance in New York, with multiple endorsed candidates advancing or winning across congressional, state assembly, and local races. Mamdani’s volunteer network and brand appear to have transferred real power in these low-turnout primaries.

A Personal Look Back at the 2016 Presidential Race

The White House YouTube channel recently shared a video from Trump Tower titled The Golden Escalator That Changed History. It was posted on Wednesday, but it takes us right back to June 16, 2015 — the day Donald Trump announced his historic run for President. [VIDEO]

The video is nicely shot — kudos to the videographer. At the time, though, I honestly wouldn’t have paid much attention. In the years since, that Golden Escalator moment has become an iconic event. It launched a successful campaign that defeated a formidable opponent: a former Secretary of State and U.S. Senator who seemed poised to become America’s first female President.