Blue States Need the Dream

You may have seen my two recent posts on the Illinois gubernatorial race. One asked whether the only televised forum between Governor Pritzker and Darren Bailey would move anyone who hasn’t already voted. The other was about what a solid opposition actually looks like in a state that has grown used to one-party rule. My point in covering it is simple: Illinois needs an opposition party that can win. As PBD has said about candidates running for president, the opposition still has to sell the dream.

California is another state in the same position. Steve Hilton finished second in the top-two primary and is the Republican nominee against Xavier Becerra. He has spent months making the case that the state can be more affordable and better governed. Polls still show him trailing by a wide margin. The election is unlikely to go his way.

Now we arrive at New York. Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul is running for another term against Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. If I am reading people like Bill O’Reilly correctly, Blakeman has a realistic shot at knocking off the incumbent.

Here are some highlights via NY Post: [VIDEO]

The exchanges are mostly about utility bills, sanctuary policies, spending on migrants, and Hochul’s attempts to tie Blakeman to President Trump. Blakeman’s side of the argument is that she has been governor for five years and the results are hers. Hochul’s side is that the alternative is Trump-style leadership.

I have not watched the full debate yet. The New York Post’s panel of experts split on who won it. Michael Goodwin wrote that Blakeman came prepared and put her on defense. Most public polls still show Hochul ahead by single digits to the low teens. She also has a large cash advantage.

Whether Blakeman can close the gap is the question the next three weeks will answer. The larger point is the same one I keep coming back to with Illinois and California. In states that have been blue for a long time, the opposition does not only need a record of problems to point at. It still has to sell something better.

Hochul has never struck me as particularly popular. She became governor in 2021 when Andrew Cuomo resigned. She then won a full term in 2022 against Lee Zeldin by roughly six points—the closest race for NY Governor in decades.