The Fix: Poll suggests Republican could win Weiner seat

Written by Rachel Weiner (no relation to Anthony Weiner) of the Washington Post:

A new Siena Research poll suggests that Republicans could win the Sept. 13 special election in former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s New York City district, a result that would be embarrassing for Democrats and would likely complicate redistricting plans.

The finds Republican businessman Robert Turner in striking distance of Democratic state Assemblyman David Weprin, 42 percent to 48 percent, suggesting a possible upset.

And with the election a month away, voters’ minds are surprisingly set. Only 15 percent of respondents said they were likely or very likely to change their minds.

There’s a borough divide going on here. Turner leads by six points in Brooklyn, Weiner’s home base. Weprin leads by 10 points in Queens, where he and his family are very well known. Brooklyn comprises 30 percent of the district; the rest is in Queens.

New York City is solidly Democratic, so how is it possible that a Republican can win? It would be interesting if one did although I understand that Staten Island is largely Republican as far as New York boroughs go.