We can look towards the 2010 gubernatorial election to see this at work. Although the Governor's race was very close so was the US Senate race where Republican Mark Kirk won. Both were close but the Republican - Bill Brady - failed to win the governorship against a vulnerable incumbent and the Republican won the US Senate race against a vulnerable challenger.
Two questions:
- How did it come to pass that Republicans no longer had a prayer in Cook County or Chicago?
- What's the difference in the candidacies of Bill Brady vs. Mark Kirk in their respective races? That is why did one lose
winand the other victorious?
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