Monday, November 08, 2010

Been wanting to write a post about Bill Brady over the weekend

Obviously it's old news that the Republican nominee for Governor, Bill Brady, has conceded the race for Governor on Friday. Brady who is a State Senator from Bloomington, IL (home of Illinois State University) was expected to win this election and it has been said his campaign was already planning a transition.

Either way Pat Quinn our incumbent Governor who took over for Rod Blagojevich - Ousted governor - since his removal from office in 2009 was able to eke out a victory. I had expected Quinn to lose this election based upon what he's done the past almost two years since he ascended to our Governorship. He's an honest man who has the tendency to not follow though and change his mind quickly about how to settle our state's fiscal problems.

I though Brady was a better choice for Governor, but neither he nor Gov. Quinn were the most ideal candidates at all. Both had their issues, but it was Brady's for the taking apparently and if Brady hadn't starting planning for the transition who knows if Brady could've eked out a win on Election Day. He needed workers on the campaign trail all the way through Election Day.

This election was close at last count it was around 20,000 votes separating Quinn and Brady. Both men had 46 and tenths of a percent of the vote. It's almost like maybe Bush v. Gore in 2000 perhaps that type of percent and even worse Bush didn't run away with it in the popular vote. Remember the Electoral Vote counts more than the popular vote. If Bush won the most popular votes in certain states as he had in Florida for example he could win the election without a plurality of American voters casting a ballot for him.

In 2010 Illinois, it appears that Brady won most of the state, but Cook County carried it for Quinn. It's often true if a Republican is competitive in Cook County not merely win, but is competitive he might have a shot. Let's not forget that Chicago at the very least is a very Democratic town.

I've got to say however, I almost saw this coming. One day I wrote a comment at the Capitol Fax that someone is going to call for a state electoral college because of what happened with Brady. Not that I support that, but it seems someone did call for one. We haven't yet figure out what to do with a federal one let alone create one for the state. And Rich Miller was right, counties and such don't vote people do. Even if you created a delegation from the 118 counties to cast their votes for a Governor. And at that do we choose electors similarly to what is done in practice around the nation.

Another thought I had. I would've had no problem with Brady prolonging the inevitable if it had to be verified. Of course I was of another mind of it. With the problems that this state is having currently who would want to be Governor. I did believe Brady would've been better, but that's not to say he'd have been more successful than Quinn. My advice to Brady is to just let Quinn have this one, because then he'll have to deal with the many issues instead of Brady himself.

Reading the cynical comments at the CapFax many believe that whoever won this year wouldn't have a chance in four years. Speaker Madigan who maintained his majority in the state House of Representatives this year wants to see his daughter (state Attorney General Lisa Madigan) ascend to the governorship in four years (even if many are expecting her to run for Mayor next year even if she had appeared to had denied interest in a race for Chicago Mayor). The cynics think that Madigan won't do everything it takes to solve Illinois' issues if it may impact the political future of his daughter.

Either way even if the economic picture will have changed by 2014, Brady could learn from this year and try again. He had run in 2006, but was behind Judy Baar Topinka (our then state Treasurer) for the GOP nomination for Governor.

While running multiple times and losing is never a good thing. Besides Quinn lost a couple of big time elections himself. He had lost a race for Attorney General and another for US Senate. Then he came back as Lt. Governor to find himself as Governor himself.

Even more in Brady's favor or any other potential candidate for Governor in four years is the fact that Quinn signed into law changes that allow Gubernatorial candidates to choose their own Lt. Governor running mates. Thus future nominees won't have the issues that Quinn had originally with Scott Lee Cohen and then the issues when it came time to select Sheila Simon (many Black politicos in this state wanted to see State Rep. Art Turner to be the Dem. nominee for Lt. Governor). Of course Brady had to deal with the baggage of his running mate Jason Plummer with his inexperience on the statewide level and those dreaded tax returns.

Well let's see what happens in these next four years.

I want you to read this piece by a Republican activist from downstate who wanted Brady to stand up for his conservative values. For many that was an issue especially in his stances on abortion and gay-marriage. I may largely agree with those stances however I also recognize that those aren't the most pressing issues right now.

1 comment:

Gerard said...

How about Jack Ryan?


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