Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Check out Russ Stewart's presidentail election analysis...

He uses the example of a race from long ago in North Carolina. A Senate race between the late Jesse Helms sitting incumbent and black Moderate Democrat Harvey Gantt back in the year 1990:
North Carolina is a microcosm of America, with liberal urban areas such as Raleigh, Durham and Charlotte, conservative suburbs and rural areas, and a black population of 21 percent. Like Obama, Gantt was a moderate Democrat who eschewed the "victimization" attitude of blacks such as Jesse Jackson. Unlike McCain, Helms was a hard-right conservative who vociferously opposed abortion, gun control, gay rights, foreign aid and affirmative action. He was detested by many but loved by just a few more.

In 1990, after trailing Gantt narrowly in the polls, Helms won by 106,758 votes, getting 53 percent of the votes cast. Likewise, in 1996, after running even with Gantt in the polls, Helms won by 171,958 votes, again getting 53 percent of the votes. The politically correct explanation is that North Carolina is filled with white racists who won't vote for a black candidate and that Gantt was the only Democrat who could have lost to Helms. Yet, in 1984, Helms beat the popular white Democratic governor, Jim Hunt, by 86,280 votes, with 52 percent of the vote.

The Helms-Gantt contests prove only that some white voters feel guilty about not voting for a black candidate and that they will not be honest with pollsters. As applied to 2008, when every poll has a margin of error of 4 to 5 percent, an additional "Harvey Gantt Factor" 5 percent must be factored into the equation. That means McCain, despite dismal poll numbers, could still triumph in key states, but he will not win the election.

Bush lost to Al Gore in 2000 by 539,940 votes, but he carried 29 states with 271 electoral votes, one more than a majority. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 by 3,011,951 votes, and he carried 30 states with 286 electoral votes.

Obama is ahead by 10 percent or more in 18 states and the District of Columbia, with 238 electoral votes. He is ahead by roughly 5 percent in six more states (Washington, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Florida and Virginia), with 75 electoral votes, within the margin of error, or essentially tied, in five states (Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia and North Carolina), with 56 electoral votes, and trailing slightly in three states (Indiana, Georgia and North Dakota), with 29 electoral votes.

To win, Obama need only carry his solid blue states, 18 of which were won by Kerry in 2004, plus Iowa (which is won by Bush), plus a few more states with 32 electoral votes (such as Florida, with 27); he need not win any toss-up states.
Read the whole thing.

Stewart even brought up the fact that if Hillary was the Democratic nominee this election probably would be at hand. Of course I would wonder if Americans who be just as hesitant to elect a woman President and they would a man of color. We'll find out on election day, but this one is going to be exciting.

To be sure this is almost like the 2000 Presidential race. Not only was no one totally sure who'd win the race on election day, but we weren't sure who was going to win the race after election day. I hope that won't the case this time around although voting for either McCain and Obama is probably a tough choice for a lot of people.

Who do you think should be President? Include anybody you'd like.

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