Tuesday, October 14, 2008

The Bradley Effect in Illinois

Rich Miller points out that Illinois politics history indicates that there are no signs of a "Bradley Effect". The Bradley Effect is basically an attempt to explain discrepancies between polls and election results when a white politician runs against a non-white politicians. It was named for Tom Bradley, the late former Mayor of Los Angeles, who ran twice for Governor of California only to lose both times.

Miller goes back to 1983, when Harold Washington ran for Mayor of Chicago and won. It can't be said there was a Bradley effect because for the most part ethnic whites in ethnic wards were hostile to him anyway. There shouldn't be any surprise that they weren't going to vote for him.

Miller's post talks about the Bradley effect in relation to undecideds in Obama's campaign for the White House. He especially notes that not all undecideds are racist and thus won't affect the outcome as current polls stand.

In Illinois Republicans are hoping for an effect to help them and this time it won't be based upon race. It will be based upon the state of politics in Illinois. They're pointing to exactly the Governor and to Cook County Board President Todd Stroger, both of their terms in office has largely been seen as disastrous.

Still Illinois Republicans have to consider how Barack Obama looms large in state politics as he is seeking the Presidency. In fact since neither Blagojevich and Stroger is on the ballot this year who knows if they might have an impact on the state as we move closer to Election Day. It should be noted that they're also concerned about the negative ads that McCain has put out against Obama with the belief that it's not going to help them as the GOP is seeking to maintain their seats in the General Assembly.

Hmmm, is it inappropriate to mention a Con-Con in this post. Maybe it's a little late for that now, but perhaps the GOP should campaign not against two officer holders who currently aren't up for re-election. Instead to change the system that in some respects enables the stand-still of state government. Just a thought!

1 comment:

JP Paulus said...

It should be noted that many Barak Obama supporters weren't even BORN when the Bradley effect first took place. And since then, they have grown up used to diversity. So, if anything, they might be a part of a reverse Bradley effect (as it seems with some Black conservatives, who might normally automatically vote for mcCain, now are having 2nd, or even 3rd or 4th thoughts).

It was also brought up by some that again that younger generation are mostly on cell phones rather than landlines, so they might be left out of some of the polling, which again might prove a reverse Bradley effect (or at the very least, negate what ever "real" bradley effect there is).

We shall see in a couple of weeks...

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