Thursday, November 10, 2016

City Journal: Examining the Scorecard


I found this via Instapundit. Exit polling suggested that Trump did well among "minorities" or I should say better than Mitt Romney who ran for POTUS in 2012.
Early Wednesday morning, exit poll data began to circulate that showed Trump improving the GOP’s standing with both African-Americans and Latinos. Less clear was just how central a role this shift played. To see the dramatic effect, compare the 2012 and 2016 exit polls that split the result by race.

In 2012, the electorate was 72 percent white (which went 59 percent Romney / 39 percent Obama) and 28 percent nonwhite (which went 81 percent Obama / 18 percent Romney), yielding a total margin of plus 3.1 percent for Obama. In 2016, the electorate was 70 percent white (which went 58 percent Trump / 37 percent Clinton) and 30 percent nonwhite (which went 73 percent Clinton / 21 percent Trump), yielding a total margin of plus 0.9 percent for Clinton.

The overall result is a 2.3 percent shift toward the Republicans. (Totals won’t sum due to rounding, and they won’t match final vote counts, because these are the exit polls.) We can allocate that shift across three changes: the shift in the mix of white and nonwhite voters; the shift in preferences among white voters; and the shift in preferences among nonwhite voters.
Man I wish my skills include crunching numbers such as these. It would be easy to see these trends and see if they stay consistent or when they stall. Read the whole thing, there's more to it than what's excerpted here.

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