In Ald. Troutman's case well I've stated a couple of times that I wouldn't be surprised if she wins despite her current legal troubles. We also see that she seems to not mind holding development of her ward in limbo. One could say she took a page out of the book of her colleague Ald. Dorthy Tillman her fellow south side Alderman who is also predicted for the most part to either lose or be in a runoff.
Still I have one prediction that indicates that she will lose her race, but this first prediction is from local political columnist Russ Stewart...
Arenda Troutman, age 49, has been the alderman of the South Side 20th Ward since 1991. She was indicted on bribery charges in January. "Somebody's out to get me," she was quoted as saying. She's cloaking herself in victimhood, and she has weak opposition.
20th Ward: In the black community an indictment can be a badge of honor, particularly if the indicted claims to be a victim of white racism. Or it can be an embarrassment. Troutman, who got 56 percent of the vote in 2003, faces two foes: Willie Cochran, a retired cop, and Ed Chaney, a retired dentist.
My prediction: Troutman will drop under 50 percent on Feb. 27, and she will lose the runoff.
Here's another column from Richard Carnahan of Gaper's Block. He predicts exactly the oppose with probable percentages...
20th Ward: I hope you didn't think the federal indictment on corruption charges would forestall an outright Troutman victory. Not in Chicago.
Prediction: Arenda Troutman 58%, Other 42%
I don't know if it'll be that high, but again it wouldn't surprise me if she won this one. If the evidence against her is worth anything, she won't have much time to serve and what we'll see is yet another appointed Alderman from Mayor Daley. Who knows Bishop Brazier might actually approve of this choice.
The election is next week, BTW, vote if you can and make a choice.